Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog

Apollo Group Sees a Rare Jump in Front-Month Call Activity

Call volume climbs on APOL, despite weak technical performance

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 10:54 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Speculators showed an unusual interest in Apollo Group (APOL - 53.45) calls yesterday, as more than 5,100 of these contracts crossed the tape, more than doubling the equity's average daily volume. The bulk of the trading centered around the out-of-the-money February 55 strike, where over 4,900 calls were exchanged -- most of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. However, open interest at this strike fell by 1,186 contracts overnight, signaling liquidation activity. Even so, this option still carries peak call open interest of 6,742 contracts.

Despite Monday's surge in call volume, puts still appear to be the options of choice for APOL. The equity sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.63, conveying that puts comfortably outnumber calls among options slated to expire within three months. In fact, this ratio ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range, which means that traders have been more bearishly oriented toward the stock just 8% of the time over the past year.

Furthermore, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.93 for APOL, indicating that puts bought to open have nearly tripled calls during the last couple of weeks. This ratio registers in the 80th annual percentile, conveying that investors have been scooping up bearish options over bullish at an accelerated clip.

On the technical front, APOL has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by around 12% during the past 20 sessions. A look at the charts shows that the stock is already poised to close a second week beneath its 10-week moving average, which had previously served as support since early December.

At last check, however, APOL is up about 1.8% and is trading at $53.45.


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Groupon Garners Attention from Pre-Earnings Call Buyers

GRPN's February 22 call saw an influx of new positions

by Andrea Kramer 2/7/2012 10:24 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Groupon Inc. (GRPN - 22.86) is expected to step into the earnings confessional for the first time tomorrow. Ahead of the event, the coupon king has been exceptionally popular among call traders, with more than 9,500 of these bullishly biased contracts traded yesterday -- more than twice the norm.

Jumping right in... Speculators established new positions at the at-the-money February 22 call, which saw open interest spike by nearly 2,000 contracts overnight. Digging deeper, we find that most of the contracts changed hands at the ask price, suggesting they were purchased. By buying the 22-strike calls to open, the traders are expecting GRPN to muscle north of $22 over the next couple of weeks.

From a broader sentiment standpoint, though, yesterday's affinity for GRPN calls was just more of the same for the stock. In fact, the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 1.28, indicating that traders have bought to open more GRPN calls than puts during the past two weeks. Likewise, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.74 implies that calls comfortably outnumber puts among options slated to expire within three months.

However, it's worth noting that short interest on the equity surged 11.4% during the past month, and now represents nearly two weeks' worth of pent-up buying demand, at GRPN's average pace of trading. As such, it's possible that the recent preference for calls could be attributable to hedging activity by the shorts.

In early trading, GRPN has given up 2.8% to explore the $22.86 region.


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Options Players Rev Up with Tesla Motors Calls

TSLA's call traders may have been skeptics in disguise

by Terri Stridsberg 2/7/2012 9:54 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Tesla Motors (TSLA - 31.31) saw a rare spike in call activity on Monday, as more than 4,200 of these options changed hands, which was more than double the equity's average daily volume. A large portion of the action occurred at the out-of-the-money February 33 strike, where 1,549 calls were traded -- nearly all of them at the ask price, pointing to buyer-driven volume. Open interest on this option rose by 1,381 contracts overnight, making it safe to assume that most of the volume consisted of newly opened positions. This call is now home to open interest of 1,647 contracts. By buying these calls to open, investors are expecting the stock to power north of the $33 level by the time front-month options expire.

However, yesterday's preference for calls over puts is a change of pace for TSLA. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 2.47, confirming that puts more than double calls among options expiring within three months. In fact, this ratio sits just four percentage points shy of an annual high, signaling that traders have been more put-heavy toward the stock only 4% of the time during the past 12 months.

What's more, TSLA's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio checks in at 1.22, indicating that puts bought to open have comfortably outnumbered calls during the past two weeks. This ratio registers in the 94th percentile of its annual range, which means that traders have been snatching up bearish options over bullish at a near annual-high clip.

Meanwhile, short interest on the electric auto concern climbed by 3.08% during the most recent reporting period, and now represents a staggering 38.95% of TSLA's float -- or almost 18 days' worth of pent-up buying demand. This implies that some of yesterday's call activity could be attributable to short sellers looking to hedge their bearish bets.

Technically, TSLA has gained more than 11% year-to-date, but has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 15% during the past 40 sessions. On the charts, the stock is on pace to finish a third consecutive week above its 10-week moving average, which had previously acted as resistance for over a month.

In the first hour of the session, however, the equity is down about 1.5% to hover at $31.31.


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Spread Trader Expects a Post-Earnings Dip for Computer Sciences Corp.

Breaking down a bear put spread on CSC

by Andrea Kramer 2/7/2012 9:25 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC - 27.45) is set to take the earnings stage before the opening bell tomorrow. According to Thomson Reuters, the firm has surpassed Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in three of the past four quarters. Nevertheless, it looks like one options speculator is bracing for a post-earnings drop, but is hedging his bets just to be safe.

During the course of yesterday's session, symmetrical blocks of several hundred puts traded at the March 25 and March 27.50 strikes. What's more, put open interest swelled at both strikes overnight, confirming the initiation of new positions. However, the 27.50-strike puts traded at the ask price of $2.15, suggesting they were bought, while the 25-strike puts crossed at the bid price of $1.05, implying they were likely sold. In other words, the strategist constructed a bear put spread on CSC for a net debit of $1.10 per pair of contracts.

By purchasing the 27.50-strike puts, the trader is expecting the shares of CSC to retreat in the short term. However, to limit the cost of entry -- which represents the maximum risk -- of the bearish trade, the investor sacrificed potential reward by selling the lower-strike puts. Plus, he trimmed his breakeven rail.

Now, he needs the shares of CSC to breach the $26.40 level (bought put strike minus net debit) in order to profit on the play. Had he simply bought the 27.50-strike puts, he'd need the shares to breach the $25.35 level (strike minus premium paid). On the flip side, the sold puts cap his maximum risk at $1.40 (difference between strikes minus net debit), no matter how far CSC sinks beneath the $25 level. Had he only bought the at-the-money puts, his profit would increase with each step south of breakeven.

Ahead of the bell, CSC is pointed 1.6% lower. From a longer-term perspective, the equity has added 15.8% in 2012, and finished last week north of both its 10-week and 20-week trendlines for just the third time since late April.


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Motricity's Positive Price Action Brings Call Players to the Table

Front-month call volume balloons on MOTR

by Terri Stridsberg 2/6/2012 3:27 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Speculators are favoring Motricity, Inc. (MOTR - 1.59) calls today, as nearly 4,200 of these options have been exchanged so far, representing 22 times the equity's expected intraday volume. More than 1,800 calls have been traded at the in-the-money February 1 strike -- the majority of them at the ask price, pointing to buyer-driven volume. Currently, this option holds peak call open interest of just 1,017 contracts, so it's safe to say that new positions are being opened in this session.

This affinity for calls over puts is an ongoing trend for MOTR. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 0.20, conveying that calls outnumber puts by five to one among options expiring within three months. In fact, this ratio ranks in only the 6th percentile of its annual range, which indicates that short-term options players have been more call-heavy toward the stock just 6% of the time over the past year.

What's more, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) reveals a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 293.4, confirming that calls bought to open have outnumbered puts by a whopping 293 to one during the last two weeks. In fact, this ratio sits just four percentage points shy of a yearly acme, signaling that traders have been snapping up bullish options over bearish at an almost annual-high clip.

However, it's worth noting that while short interest on MOTR declined by 9.8% during the last two reporting periods, these bearish plays still make up a hefty 21.84% of the equity's float. This suggests that short sellers looking to hedge their bets may be contributing to some of the recent call volume -- particularly since MOTR has gained about 99% over the past three days. Either way, it would take almost seven days to cover these shorted shares, at the stock's average daily trading volume.

Examining MOTR's technical performance, the equity has gained a staggering 77% year-to-date, and has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by roughly 37% during the past 20 sessions. On the charts, the stock is already on pace to finish the week atop its 20-week moving average, a feat not accomplished since January 2011.

At last look, MOTR is up about 24% to flirt with the $1.59 region.


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Yahoo Inc (YHOO) $15.79 -0.85%

2/6/2012 4:20:02 PM
Yahoo for the trader who just put up a cool 270,000 contract trade on the PHLX on an otherwise low volume Monday with the broad averages near flat and vix up .79 to 17.89. On the PHLX the initiator paid 13c for 30K April 19calls and 1.38 for 70K July 16 calls and 10c for 40K July 22calls versus a sale of 130K July 18c for 56cents. Appears to adjust a large July 16-19 1x2 callspd that traded on jan 4th (see 1/4/2012 color).

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Vulcan Materials (VMC) $44.91 +0.27%

2/6/2012 1:20:01 PM
Vulcan Materials (VMC) is up 4 cents to $44.83 and early options trades on the stock include a multi-exchange sweep of 1,063 Feb 45 puts for $1.80 per contract. 3,070 now traded against 106 in open interest. Data from the ISE indicate opening buyers and implied volatility in the options on VMC is up 21 percent to 41. Some investors might be hedging their bets ahead of a Feb 15 earnings report. The stock has surged 33.8 percent since Martin Marietta made an all stock hostile bid for the maker of sand, gravel, and other construction-related materials. VMC has thus far rejected the offer. Martin Marietta might shed light on its future plans when the company reports earnings tomorrow.

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Dryships Inc (DRYS) $2.59 +7.69%

2/6/2012 12:20:02 PM
Dryships (DRYS) sees a second day of increasing volume. Shares are up 20 cents to $2.63 on volume approaching 14 million. Typical volume in the first two hours is about 2 million shares. Meanwhile, options activity is running 3.5X the daily average. 21,000 calls and 1,245 puts traded on the stock. Today's flow seems to include buyers and sellers. Feb 2.5 calls, which are now 13 cents in-the-money and expiring in 11 days, are the most actives. The top trade is a 411-lot on the 15-cent bid and is possibly a liquidating trade. Mar 2.5, Feb 3, Mar 3, and Jan 2.5 calls are the next most actives and levels of implied volatility are moving up 1.5 percent to 84. DRYS saw a pop late Friday on increasing volume as well (see 2/3 color). The gains in the stock and high volume are possibly related to news today that the company's Oil Drill UDW unit struck a drilling contract with Norweigan Continental Shelf, which will add about $653 million in revenues to the backlog.

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CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) $17.24 -4.12%

2/3/2012 3:20:05 PM
CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) fell to multi-month lows of 16.1 Friday morning and was recently down .77 points to 17.10. Trading in the VIX pit is very busy today and included some sizable blocks. One noteworthy trade is a Feb 26 - Mar 35 call spread, apparently bought for 29 cents, 40000X, and might close a positoin opened a couple of weeks ago when the same diagonal spread was sold for 7.5 cents, 40000X (see 1/24 color). Separately, an investor bought 60,000 April 20 - May 26 strangles on VIX for $4.45 and seems to have opened a position in anticipaton of increased volatility in the volatility index before mid-May. A third noteworthy trade in the index today is an April 28 - 35 (1X2) call ratio spread for 20 cents, 15000X. April 28 calls were sold to buy twice as many April 35 puts -- possibly roling up in strike prices, as open interest in the April 28s is over 67K. Total volume in VIX is 390,000 calls and 177,000 puts.

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Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD) $105.49 +2.76%

2/3/2012 1:20:04 PM
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is up $2.98 to $105.64 and has now rallied 8.4 percent this week. One player in the options market seems to be anticipating additional gains in the Irving, TX oil and gas company and sold 5,000 Feb 95 puts on the stock to buy 2,500 Feb 105 - 115 call spreads, paying $1.55 for the package. The position looks opening and tied to 168K shares at $104.68. Earnings due out Feb 6 and the company presents at a Credit Suisse conference on Feb 7.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT) $29.97 +0.27%

2/2/2012 4:20:04 PM
Microsoft (MSFT) notched a new 52-week high today and is up 11 cents to $30. Shares have rallied 15.6 percent so far in 2012 and were helped by a better-than-expected Jan 19 earnings release. One player in the options market seems to be anticipating additional gains for Micorsoft in the months ahead and initiated an Apr 30 - 32 call spread on the stock for 64 cents, 10000X on ISE. Data from the exchange is reporting a firm initiated the trade to open. It looks tied to 260K shares of stock and seems to be targeting a move to $32 or beyond through the April expiration, which represents a 6.7 percent gain over the next 78 days.

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Zynga Inc (ZNGA) $12.22 +15.28%

2/2/2012 11:20:04 AM
Zynga (ZNGA) gains $1.90 to $12.50 on volume of 27 million shares, which is 10X the typical volume for the San Francisco Internet company, as Facebook's IPO disclosure has lifted shares of many companies in the social media space today. GRPN and RENN are both up more than 9 percent. LNKD, SINA and P are also outperforming. Trading in the options remains active as well, with 20,000 calls and 19,000 puts in ZNGA so far, which is 5X the daily average for the name. Levels of implied volatility are moving up 19 pecent to new 52-week highs of 96.5 and some investors are perhaps selling premium into the IV spike, as the top two trades are lots of Feb 10 put at 30 and 35 cents when the market was 30 to 40 cents. 7000 traded. Feb 12 puts are the next most actives. Mar 11, Feb 11 and Mar 12 calls on ZNGA are seeing active trading as well.

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Bank of America Corporation New (BAC) $7.37 +3.37%

2/1/2012 3:20:04 PM
Big call buyer is back in BofA (BAC) Wednesday. Shares have added 25 cents to $7.38 and a 62500-contract block of Apr 8 calls is bought on the bank for 37 cents. The trade is tied to 2.3 million shares at $7.40 and likely adds to positions opened yesterday, when 62,500 were bought for 28 cents per contract (see 1/31 color).

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ATP Oil and Gas Corp (ATPG) $6.32 -10.23%

2/1/2012 12:00:07 PM
Relative weakness and high volume in ATP Oil and Gas (ATPG) today. Shares of the Houston, TX driller are down 10 percent to $6.33 on volume of 3 million shares, which is more than 6X the expected. Options on the stock are actively traded as well. 7,670 puts and 4,880 calls so far. Feb 6 puts, which are 6.1 percent OTM with two-and-a-half weeks of life remaining, are the most actives. 1,890 traded. Feb, Mar and Jun $5 puts are also seeing interest and implied volatility is rallying 47 percent -- once again elevated at 139.5. Players appear to be bracing for further losses in shares, which are down almost 70 percent since February of last year. No company news to explain the high volume in ATPG today.

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Manitowoc Company (MTW) $14.96 +11.31%

2/1/2012 11:20:04 AM
Manitowac (MTW) adds $1.60 to $15.04 on volume of 4 millon shares after the farm and construction company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenues after the close of trading yesterday. Typical share volume through the first hour is about 750K. Options on the stock are seeing high volume as well. 11,000 calls and 1,570 puts traded in MTW so far. Feb 14 calls are the most actives. 3,540 traded. Another 3,255 Feb 15 calls changed hands. Implied volatility is down 22 percent to 50.5 and its lowest levels so far this year (but still well above the 52-week lows of 38 seen on 7/1), as some investors are likely liquidating positions opened before earnings were reported Tuesday afternoon (see 1/31 color).

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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